Fraud Guard, Capital Markets Data, QC, POS Products; PHH and OptiFunder News; Non-Agency

Technology is a two-edged sword. Have you ever heard of “surveillance pricing?” “Big brother” knows a lot about you. Ridesharing companies like Uber, for instance, can charge users more when they have lower battery life on their phone. “Democrats in Pennsylvania have introduced a bill that would stop retailers from changing the price of essential goods and services in a given 24 hour period.” I’d like to know what “essential” means. When computers and data go awry, look out. And when you combine that with regulators and the U.S. Government, problems can be all-consuming. “Credit Bureaus Are Leaving More Mistakes on Frustrated Consumers’ Reports Under Trump’s CFPB” is making its way around our biz. Credit, and the companies that report that information, will certainly be a topic on today’s Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET, presented by Lenders One, featuring Matt Van Fossen. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Floify, an industry-leading point of sale platform. The Dynamic Apps 2.0 AI-powered enhancement lets lenders tailor application flows by loan type, leading to higher completion rates, less operational back-and-forth and specialty lending without the one-size-fits-all compromise. Hear an interview with Floify’s Jason Mapes on automating tasks like data extraction, document validation, and 1003 completion within the POS, enabling lenders to deliver faster, cleaner, and more compliant loan files without introducing risky borrower-facing AI interactions.)

Overnight Weakness, Limited CPI Impact, MBS Outperformance

There was a very high bar for today's CPI to cause any serious market reaction due to all the new inflationary impulses that may be created by record volatility in energy markets that hasn't yet made it into the official data. In other words, CPI is a time capsule for a bygone era and the market is already trading the implications on future inflation reports to the best of its ability using oil prices as a proxy. Before the data, 10yr yields were a few bps higher overnight and haven't moved since the data. MBS are unchanged to a hair stronger after accounting for "the roll."  Rather than dissect the data that failed to move the market (it was fairly boring anyway as everything came in right in line with forecasts), we can take another look at the interesting impact of chart scaling. Specifically, we talked about how Treasuries broke up and away from the path suggested by oil prices yesterday. A full 3-day chart reiterates that assessment: But if we zoom in to a 2-day chart (which chops off the super high oil prices on Monday), it's much easier to see that oil and yields are still strongly correlated.